Is European austerity really failing?

May 19, 2013

Is European austerity failing?

I have mostly accepted the claims of many media and political pundits about austerity programs in Europe failing. Many of these same pundits are then using this claim as the basis for recommending America further ramp up its borrowing and spending to help speed the healing of our economy and create jobs.

These calls for increased borrowing and accumulating even more debt for future Americans are usually tempered by the phrase, "until the economy recovers". To which I respond...what if it doesn't? What if the twin forces of automation and low cost labor from less developed nations simply continues to result in fewer available jobs in all developed nations, including America, for the foreseeable future?

Lately I have begun to question my almost automatic acceptance of harm being caused by austerity in Europe. It seems to me claiming austerity in a country is failing is just about as valid as claiming a family having to cut back on spending it can no longer afford is painful for them. Duh! Has austerity caused some pain for many Europeans? Undoubtedly! However, on the positive side, it has certainly slowed down the continuing accumulation of debt...which all of these countries have in common with America. I also think it's very likely the pain it causes current citizens will help reduce pain for future generations. The bottom of most developed nation's deep debt and joblessness hole wasn't reached overnight, and climbing out will take time and shared sacrifices for many years, and perhaps even decades.

America went through a severe and long-lasting depression beginning in 1929, and full recovery didn't happen until the end of WW II. Clearly the immense spending to support the war helped to restore our economy. However, we must also remember the rest of the developed nations manufacturing capacity had been mostly destroyed by the war, and as a result, America had major competitive advantages from the late forties until the early 70s. These advantages fueled what became the golden age of America for the middle class.

Parents of my generation grew up during the great depression. Most had personal experience with deprivation and hardship. But, they also seemed to take great pride in having the self-reliance to survive. It affected the way most of these depression era folks lived for the rest of their lives. They never forgot their deprivations, always saved for rainy days, and only bought what they needed and could afford...not everything they wanted.

Sadly, the lessons the depression era generation and their leaders learned were quickly forgotten by succeeding generations. Since the 1970s, many of our citizens and most government leaders, along with those throughout Europe, failed to apply the lessons learned by the depression era generation. They failed to save for rainy days, and bought too much on credit. Worse, our elected learned they could ensure staying in power by spending our tax dollars in ways which mainly favored the powerful special interests. Then to finally cap our elected's incredible foolishness and greed, they found they could leverage the entire process by borrowing, and then leave future generations of American citizens and elected to deal with the aftermath.

I do not know of a single rational head of a family or business who, after spending themselves into a deep hole, would decide the best solution is to just keep adding debt. Sooner or later the piper has to be paid. At best, the payback time frame for additional borrowing will only be slightly delayed...but the total size of the debt will only be more painful to manage in the future.

So is austerity really failing in Europe? It is if the main objective is to spare current citizens from any and all pain caused by continuously overspending. And, It is for elected officials desperately trying to stay in power, because the voters now clearly understand their failures. Hopefully, the worst case for these failed politicians will result in their firing.

Will most American citizens face suffering similar to Europeans? It's already happening to millions of Americans, and I'm afraid it's very likely to increase. Perhaps for a few succeeding generations, many will once again learn to live more prudent lives by saving for a rainy day and never overspending resources they don't have. Hopefully, they will also insist their politicians do the same.

The most important question to be answered is, do we honestly trust our leaders will spend additional borrowed money wisely? Really...do we also believe in fairy tales?

I think we should all demand our elected leaders prove they can focus on massively reducing wasteful spending before we even think about supporting even more borrowing. The Simpson-Bowles plan would be a great place to start. Do you ever wonder why this logical and non-partisan plan is so difficult to implement? Hint...the special interests and politicians don't want the gravy train to slow down!

These are my opinions. What do you think?

Mike Tower

Krugman is wrong

May 12, 2013

Krugman theoretically right, but still wrong!

New York Times Columnist, Paul Krugman has superb academic qualifications. After all, he is currently Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton, and Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics. On top of all of that he won a Nobel prize in Economics in 2008.

While not coming close to being as academically qualified as the good professor, I did have a 38-year career mainly in executive positions in five different industries. Thus, I spent my career implementing theories in "the real world". I often observed the ideas of some very smart people failing miserably because, while theoretically sound, they simply didn't work. After all, isn't a theory by definition an idea waiting to be tested?I

On April 28, Krugman had an article in the opinion section of the New York Times advocating increased borrowing and spending, as stimulus to spend our nation out of its current economic malaise. Having heard the "would any reasonable family do this" question, he goes to great efforts to point out differences between a family continuing to borrow when deeply in debt, and a government doing the same.

The two biggest differences I see between a family and a nation's government with too much debt are: 1. A family's debts are usually discharged at the death of those who created them. A government, on the other hand, can always pass debt on to future generations. 2. While families cannot print more money, or borrow almost unlimited amounts, a government can. These government options though do not come without potentially negative side effects.

I somewhat agree with his beliefs our government should not risk reducing borrowing and spending as long as our economy remains so fragile. However, I would like to see reductions in wasteful government spending which is so prevalent. But, not reducing borrowing and spending is far different from his suggestions to massively increase both. As the old saying goes: When you find your self deep in a hole, the first rule is to stop digging...not dig even deeper!

I believe Krugman's advocacy for expanding government borrowing and spending is based on two flawed fundamental beliefs.

First, he believes our government will actually spend additional borrowed money on things which will create jobs. Has he forgotten the hundreds of billions spent to bail out financial institutions, the very organizations which caused the housing bubble in the first place? Has he forgotten the billions in executive bonuses handed out in these same organizations afterwards? While almost every financial organization benefited, how many homeowners did? How much borrowed money was wasted on "green" businesses? Has anyone forgotten Solyndra? How many billions are we still wasting on ethanol? How many billions of dollars are we still spending on wars?

Second, as he often has written, "we need to borrow and spend until the economy recovers". My question is, what if it doesn't recover? What if the side-effects of globalization are shifting America into a new economic reality in which our nation's piece of the world's economic pie keeps shrinking, resulting in fewer jobs, continuing stagnant wages, and reduced American living standards?

In my experience, many economists tend to be so focused on models and theories, they ignore the potential for failures caused by flawed implementation. The main reasons for such failure is often because those who must implement theories are humans with all of mankind's potential weaknesses. And, when unlimited greed combines with a corrupted system of governance, and then comes into conflict with the greater good for a nation's people...guess which usually wins?

During the past decade, the national debt, driven by borrowing and spending, has steadily and massively expanded. Yet, since the recession began, even with increased borrowing, our nation has barely managed to create enough new jobs to even keep up with population growth. Millions of Americans remain without work and increasing numbers of them have given up looking.

He also misses or ignores another critical point; it isn't just a lack of jobs which has reduced spending by American consumers. It is the combination of insufficient new jobs, exhausted savings, stagnant wages, and reduced home equity which have collectively reduced consumer spending. Just as it took decades for our leaders to dig the deep hole we stand in today, it will take a very long time to recover.

Since our leaders did not spent our money effectively in the past few decades, why would we believe they will now? Do you see any possibility of the two parties unifying anytime soon to begin wisely spending our future generations' money. After all, if our leaders didn't invest previously borrowed money for badly needed infrastructure to create jobs in the past few decades...why believe they would do it now?

Professor Krugman, I admire your intellect. However, I really don't trust the implementors! Looking at the incredible corruption and dysfunction in Washington...do you not see the greater likelihood of additional borrowed money once again ending up lining the pockets of the wealthy special interests?

Like you, I wish additional borrowing and spending, and passing on the additional debt to our future citizens, would somehow magically get our nation out of its current depression. Sadly, with our long failed leadership in both parties...not a chance in hell!

These are my opinions. What do you think?

Mike